Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
