Aerial Devices from the Belarusian Side Create Turmoil in the Baltic Nation. Smugglers or a Political Provocation?

On occasions when the wind gusts from the east from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.

That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with boxes of cheap cigarettes dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this smuggling operation has caused Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into suspension 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was closed completely for a prolonged 11 hours.

However, the government are adamant they are facing something considerably more sinister than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian government has declared an official alert.

While balloons have been employed by smugglers previously, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus exploits criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a senior official stated.

The official noted the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a conviction that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, each evening, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are most frequent after dark.

Teams establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a viable or cost-effective option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can develop how to safely stop them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also serve as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with security wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "criminal" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to a history of hybrid tactics.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That means it benefits them."

The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"One thing is the extra cost, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's not easy, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."