Australia's Unsuccessful Attempt to Stage Cop31 Looks Like a Mess – But It May In Fact Be the Optimal Outcome Possible

Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively combat the environmental emergency.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations feared a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.