Beyond the Pomp of Vladimir Putin's New Delhi Visit: An Indo-Russian Bond Which Has Frayed.

The diplomatic language and visuals from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's most recent official trip to India projected a robust bilateral relationship. Indian PM Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen shared a car journey, echoing a known diplomatic style. In his remarks, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian bond as a "lodestar", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "stood the test of time". This was Putin's 10th trip to India during his quarter-century rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Divide Separating Symbolism and Reality

Yet, a clear gap persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this relationship. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of external pressure. The two countries signed numerous agreements in areas like migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and academic collaboration. However, expected announcements on major defence deals failed to happen. India has not concluded any substantial defence purchases with Russia following the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation fueled by delays in shipments of platforms and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence needs.

A Relationship With Diminished Geopolitical Heft

These developments points to that the India-Russia relationship no longer carries the same geopolitical clout it once possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India maintained special trade terms and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This privileged relationship peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was backed by the US and China. While both nations have sought to preserve a appearance of this special tie through a "special and privileged" alliance announced in 2010, the truth is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the Western world.

Diversification and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to cut its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as external pressure mounts on India to curtail its imports of Russian oil, both countries are attempting to diversify the partnership into new areas. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an joint economic programme lasting until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This includes enhancing market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade deficit heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Cooperation between the two spans multiple strategically important sectors – from space and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Bonds and Seen Dependability

At an ideological plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior cohorts of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of sympathy for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. During recent frictions between India and the US, where American officials have made critical remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a more dependable ally.

This key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive joint statement issued during Putin's India trip contained no reference to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's public steps regarding the conflict have been limited.

Squaring the Circle: India's Foreign Policy Tightrope

This dynamic does not belie the underlying complexities in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, after a similar agreement with the UK this year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology partnership. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although moves are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that current talks will succeed, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a major thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. But, should a peace deal is reached, if it falls short of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will certainly continue in European and American governments.