The Way This Strange Season Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Formula.

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still